Contagion and interdependencies between BRICS-plus Countries on the Markets of Commodities and Derivative Financial Instruments

Desogus, Marco

;Casu, Elisa

2024-01-01

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Abstract

Purpose: This study was started on the main macroeconomic data (2010-2019), coming from the countries of the BRICS-plus group. While a significant contribution of these emerging economies to global economic output has generally been observed, this has also been accompanied by persistent domestic imbalance. Design/Methodology/Approach: Regarding the model, we state and contextualize the (long-term) risk co-incidence of the set of macroeconomic variables for this coalition of countries. Particular attention was paid to a valuation, description and forecasting model based on the calculation of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) in a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process on the time series of credit default swaps (CDS). Findings: The empirical analysis and calculations carried out have verified the significance of the parameters and confirmed the conditional dynamic correlation between the economies of the Brics “expanded”, especially in the presence of shocks, which also involve mutual contagion (temporary increase in DCC) and even interdependence (increasing DCC leads to new, less unstable levels). Implications/Originality/Value: The research offers a look at the most current trends in terms of international economic balances and the entire global system, focusing on commodity markets, financial derivatives and the impacts of trade at the dawn of the new BRICS-plus coalition.