A risk prediction model for Maritime accidents

Andrea Medda;Patrizia Serra;Marco Mandas;Gianfranco Fancello

2024-01-01

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Abstract

This study proposes analytical tools to predict maritime accidents involving dangerous goods to help improve maritime safety and preserve marine and coastal heritage. Maritime accidents of dangerous goods can have devastating consequences, causing loss of life, damage to the environment and economic losses. There have been numerous studies attempting to predict maritime accidents, but most have focused on a single type of accident (e.g. oil spills) or a single region (e.g. Baltic Sea, Maritime Silk Road, etc.). This study takes a different approach, using a global dataset on maritime accidents of dangerous goods from 2010 to 2019 (that includes information on the type of casualty, the location, the amount of material released, the type of material released, the cause of the accident, and the outcome), it applies both a machine learning technique and a statistical approach based on the Fourier distribution of rare events as a dual approach to address the problem. Using the Tyrrhenian area as a case study, the results show that the proposed tools can predict the probability of an accident occurring with an acceptable level of accuracy. The paper can provide a valuable tool for decision makers and stakeholders, who can use the findings to identify regions at risk of maritime accidents and take measures to prevent their occurrence.